ECB SPF 2026: Inflation Up, Growth Down Outlook

Logo of the European Central Bank with the text "European Central Bank | Eurosystem" on an institutional background

FRANKFURT AM MAIN - The ECB's latest Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q2 2026 reveals a subtle but important shift in Europe's economic outlook. Inflation expectations have been revised higher in the near term, while growth forecasts point to a weaker expansion ahead. Despite short-term pressures, long-term inflation remains anchored close to the ECB's 2% target. Meanwhile, unemployment expectations remain stable, signalling resilience in the labour market. The report highlights how energy shocks and geopolitical tensions are shaping Europe's macroeconomic path.

Inflation (HICP and core inflation)

Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the second quarter of 2026 4 May 2026. Headline and core HICP inflation revised up in the near term, while remaining unchanged further out. Real GDP growth expectations revised down for 2026 and 2027, but unchanged thereafter. Unemployment rate expectations unchanged. Respondents’ expectations for headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), were 2.7% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028. Expectations for 2026 and 2027 were revised up compared with the previous round (conducted in the first quarter of 2026). Expectations for 2028 were revised down compared with the previous survey.

DON'T MISS THIS WEEK:

Weekly Horoscope 4 – 10 May 2026: Full Zodiac Predictions

Real GDP growth

Meanwhile, expectations for core HICP inflation, which excludes energy and food, were 2.2% for 2026 and 2027, and 2.1% for 2028, also revised up in the near term from the previous survey. Expectations for the longer term (2030) were unchanged at 2.0% for both headline and core HICP inflation. Respondents expected real GDP growth of 1.0% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027 and 1.3% in 2028. Compared with the previous survey, expectations were revised down by 0.2 percentage points for 2026 and by 0.1 percentage points for 2027, but were unchanged for 2028.

Unemployment rate

The downward revisions were mainly driven by the expected negative impact of higher energy prices related to the war in the Middle East. Longer-term GDP growth expectations were unchanged at 1.3%. Unemployment rate expectations were unchanged. Respondents expected the unemployment rate to be 6.3% for 2026, 6.2% for 2027, and 6.1% for 2028 and the longer term (2030).